Progress and Cons

Epistemic status: Reflections on ProgressCon 2026, written up over the following weeks. Quotes are reconstructed from memory. Artistic license taken. For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow . – Ecclesiastes 1:18 “I’m sure you’ve all heard about the math stuff that OpenAI released earlier this week.” It is Thursday, October 8, 2026, and the CEO of a bio lab automation startup is giving us a tour of their San Francisco office. “Raise your hand if you think that’s a good thing.” A dozen hands shoot up out of thirty visitors. Along with ten more, my arm rises weakly to half-join them. “Raise your hand if you think it’s not a good thing.” I look around. A couple of quiet chuckles. No hands. He leads us through the kitchen and the standard startup office space and into the room with the robots. They are simple 3 foot by 2 foot by 2 foot boxes, set on four rows of desks. They have been chosen because they are cheap (only a couple thousand dollars each) and run on open source software on a Raspberry Pi, which means they can be modified arbitrarily. Inside are six standard 96-well plates (8 by 12 rows of tiny plastic tubes). Above them hangs a si