Thoughts on AI progress?

​ Nowadays, it has become increasingly difficult to understand the actual pace of AI progress because of all the conflicting information online. On Reddit, I constantly come across news articles and discussions claiming that AI is accelerating faster than ever and that, within the next 10 to 20 years, it will completely transform society. However, I also see other articles and comments arguing that AI has reached a plateau, that its capabilities are no longer improving significantly, and that it will ultimately remain just another productivity tool. I'm honestly quite confused. Some people claim that we are already ahead of the AI 2027 timeline and that we may be approaching recursive self-improvement (RSI), a point at which AI systems could begin improving themselves, potentially triggering an intelligence explosion. Meanwhile, others argue that the AI bubble has burst, that progress is slowing down, and that the industry is heading towards a major downfall. With so many contradictory predictions, it's becoming increasingly difficult to separate realistic expectations from hype and speculation. So, what is actually happening with AI? What can we realistically expect AI progress to