The Advocacy Gap in International AI Verification

TL;DR: There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how tractable/feasible verification mechanisms for international AI governance agreements are, and correcting this would probably make pacing proposals more politically feasible. The Skeptic’s Case for Verification The most common objection I see to proposals for pacing (or halting ) frontier AI development (in the interest of mitigating the catastrophic and existential risk posed by not doing so ) is that it’s pointless; China will continue due to the economic and military advantages of doing so, surpass us in the “AI race”, and either gain geopolitical dominance or kill us all anyway. As Ted Cruz put it , “If there are going to be killer robots, I would rather they be American killer robots, rather than Chinese killer robots.” The answer is to seek an international agreement with China (and everyone else) for us to all pace frontier development. The most common objection I see to this proposal is that it’s pointless; they will covertly defect, surpass us in the “AI race”, and either gain geopolitical dominance or kill us all anyway. The answer is to develop the means to verify compliance. Just as DARPA’s Project Vela was est